For almost three years, most big container ships sailing between Asia and Europe avoided the Red Sea and went the long way around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. That detour added roughly a week or more each way, soaked up ships, and pushed freight rates up around the world. Now the ships are coming back to the Suez Canal, and faster than most people expected.

This matters even if your cargo never goes near Egypt. Here is what is happening, why it affects rates and schedules everywhere, and what importers, exporters and forwarders in West Africa should do about it.

What has changed in the last few weeks

The numbers moved sharply in September and October 2026:

  • Capacity through the Red Sea doubled in six weeks. According to Xeneta, weekly scheduled capacity crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait in at least one direction reached 448,273 TEU on 5 October, up from about half that level on 27 August. That is still only 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023, before the diversions began.
  • Suez traffic passed half of pre-crisis levels. BIMCO, quoted by the World Ports Organization, counts routing changes on 16 services since early July. Container ship capacity through Suez averaged 753,000 TEU a week in early October, against 1.457 million TEU in the same period of 2023.
  • All four main carrier groups are using the route again. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation, the Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, OOCL, Evergreen), the Premier Alliance and MSC all now run at least some Asia–North Europe sailings via Suez. Analysts at Linerlytica expect a full-scale shift back by the first quarter of 2027.

Not every carrier has moved, and not every service has moved in both directions. Evergreen, Yang Ming and ZIM are among the lines yet to switch more broadly, and several services only use Suez on the return leg to Asia, which mostly carries empty containers.

Why it is not “back to normal” yet

The return is real, but it is cautious. Security risks around the southern Red Sea have not gone away. An armed small boat reportedly fired on a container ship there on 7 October; Maritime News reported that all crew were safe. In September, Houthi forces took Perim Island inside the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and the UN Security Council held an emergency session.

Carriers are returning because a shorter route lets each ship do more voyages a year, and no line wants to be the one still quoting the slow route while rivals offer faster transits. But every carrier has kept the Cape route as a fallback. As C.H. Robinson noted in its October update, the benefit is “service-specific and reversible if Red Sea conditions deteriorate.” One serious attack could send a lot of ships back around Africa almost overnight.

How this affects freight rates

The Cape detour soaked up a large share of the world’s container fleet. BIMCO estimates that rerouting away from Suez raised global container ship demand by about 10%, and says that effect “is now reducing quickly.”

When ships do shorter round trips, the same fleet carries more cargo, so there is more space to sell. That usually pushes rates down. Asia–Europe spot rates fell through September as ships returned, before steadying in October. Xeneta’s 16 October averages were about US$3,568 per 40ft container from the Far East to North Europe and US$4,165 to the Mediterranean.

Two things are holding rates up for now. Port congestion is absorbing roughly 12% of global vessel capacity, a four-year high, according to C.H. Robinson. And carriers are cancelling sailings (“blank sailings”) on weaker trades to protect prices. Xeneta’s analysts expect the Red Sea return to be one of the main drivers of ocean freight prices through 2027.

What it means for Nigeria and West Africa

Most cargo between China and Nigeria, and between Europe and Nigeria, does not pass through Suez anyway. So you should not expect a sudden drop in your China–Apapa transit time. The effects on West Africa are indirect, but they are real:

  1. Ships get moved around. As carriers free up vessels from the long Cape loop, they redeploy them. Industry trackers such as Ocean Freight Japan have warned that services to West Africa that ran via the Cape are among those most likely to be reviewed. That can mean changed port rotations, different transhipment hubs, or fewer direct calls on some lanes.
  2. Rates may soften, but space can get less predictable. More global capacity tends to pull rates down over time. But when networks are being reshuffled, specific sailings can be cancelled or moved at short notice.
  3. Surcharges are now set country by country. In September, CMA CGM replaced its flat US$300 per TEU China–West Africa peak season surcharge with per-country levels, including US$50 per TEU for Nigeria from 21 September. Carriers keep revising these, so always ask for the Nigeria-specific figure on the date you book.
  4. The port, not the ocean, is still the bottleneck. Lagos had cleared its anchorage queue to about one day in late September, but road gridlock was adding around four days to get boxes out of the terminals. Elsewhere in the region, Tema, Abidjan and Conakry were seeing waits of six to ten days. A faster ocean leg does not help much if the box then sits in the yard.

What importers, exporters and forwarders should do now

  • Check the actual routing, not the headline. When a carrier says a service is “back via Suez,” confirm whether that applies to your direction and your sailing. Ask for the full port rotation and transhipment points.
  • Plan delivery from gate-out, not vessel arrival. In Lagos especially, the time from discharge to your warehouse matters more than a few days saved at sea.
  • Be careful with long rate contracts. If you fix rates for 6–12 months, build in the chance that the Red Sea closes again and the Cape route comes back, with the surcharges that came with it.
  • Book early when rates dip. Lower rates and tighter, less predictable space often arrive together during network changes.
  • Watch the next three months. Key signals are whether more carriers switch their Asia-to-Europe headhaul sailings to Suez, whether security incidents continue, and how carriers adjust West Africa services and surcharges for 2027.

Working with Septmax

Septmax Logistics tracks carrier schedules, routings and surcharges so you do not have to. Whether you are importing from China, shipping to Europe, or moving cargo across West Africa, we can help you get a clear quote, a realistic delivery timeline and door-to-door handling. Email logistics@septmax.com, call +234-707-476-0270, or visit septmax.com. If you can dream it, we can handle it.

This article is for general information only. Shipping routes, schedules, rates and surcharges change frequently. Confirm current details with your carrier or forwarder before you book.