If you have asked for an air freight quote recently and felt the price was higher than last year, you are not imagining it. Average air cargo rates worldwide in September 2026 were 25% higher than in September 2025, and rates for cargo leaving Africa were up 27%, according to WorldACD’s weekly market report of 12 October.

With the year-end peak season starting, here is what is pushing prices up, what it means for people shipping into and out of Nigeria and the rest of Africa, and what you can do to keep your air freight bill under control.

What the latest numbers say

WorldACD, which tracks air cargo bookings and prices, reported that in September:

  • Worldwide air cargo tonnage rose 9% year on year and 3% compared with August.
  • Tonnage from Africa origins grew 8% year on year.
  • Average worldwide rates rose 1% from August and were 25% higher than a year earlier.
  • Rates from Africa origins rose 4% from August, the biggest monthly rise of any region, and were 27% higher than a year earlier.
  • Rates from the Middle East and South Asia were the most inflated, up 52% year on year.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the airline industry body, tells a similar story. Its August 2026 air cargo figures show global demand up 4.4% year on year while capacity slipped by 0.1%. IATA’s chief economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, said yields rose month on month for the first time since April, which she called a positive sign “as the year-end peak season comes into view”.

Why rates are higher

Fuel costs

Fuel is the biggest single driver. IATA reported that jet fuel prices in August were 79.2% higher than a year earlier. The Loadstar cited TAC Index data showing average jet fuel prices up 108% year on year by 2 October.

Airlines and forwarders pass this on through fuel surcharges, which are charged per kilogram or as a percentage on top of the base rate. For example, GEODIS lists an October 2026 fuel surcharge of 47% on its express air freight service. A Qatar Airways Cargo customer notice published on Hong Kong airport’s cargo portal sets its fuel surcharge at US$0.54 per chargeable kilogram from 19 October 2026.

Disruption around the Gulf

The US–Iran conflict has disrupted the Gulf hubs that carry a large share of cargo between Asia, Europe and Africa. WorldACD said that at the start of October, air cargo capacity to and from the Gulf was still about 17% lower than in late February, before the conflict began, even though global capacity was about 2% higher.

The Loadstar reported this month that attacks on Saudi airports had cut Riyadh’s outbound air cargo capacity by 34% over 24 hours as airlines suspended services. Carriers that used Gulf airports as refuelling stops have had to find other routes, and flying direct can mean carrying less cargo per flight.

Peak season demand

The last quarter is always the busiest time for air cargo, as retailers restock for Christmas and the new year and manufacturers rush high-value goods to market. This year, strong demand for technology goods, including shipments for AI and data centres, is adding pressure on the main Asia lanes, according to The Loadstar.

What this means for shippers in Africa

The African picture is mixed, and that matters for anyone moving goods to or from Nigeria.

More planes are flying. IATA reported that African airlines grew their cargo capacity by 14% year on year in August, faster than any other region, while their cargo demand rose only 3%. Their load factor, the share of cargo space actually filled, fell to 36.5%. flydubai added three Boeing 737-800 freighters from 1 October to strengthen its coverage of African markets, according to Capmad. Ethiopian Airlines has ordered ten more Boeing freighters, and The Africa Report says the first two are due in 2027 and 2028.

But prices are still high. Extra capacity has not cancelled out fuel costs and Gulf disruption. Rates from Africa are rising faster than the global average.

Asia routes are softer. IATA said traffic on the Africa–Asia trade lane fell 11.9% year on year in August, its third month of decline in a row. Space on some routes from China may be easier to find than on others, but prices will still carry the higher fuel surcharge.

Routing is changing. Some cargo that used to connect through Dubai or Doha is moving through Addis Ababa and other African hubs instead. Transit times and handling can change when a route changes, so ask your forwarder which route your shipment will take.

Seven ways to keep your air freight costs down

  1. Book early. Space gets tighter and spot prices climb as Christmas approaches. If you have goods for the festive season, confirm bookings now rather than in December.
  2. Ask for an all-in quote. Make sure the quote shows the base rate, fuel surcharge, security surcharge, handling and any terminal charges separately, and check how long the price is valid. A quote that looks cheap can grow once surcharges are added.
  3. Reduce chargeable weight. Airlines charge on the higher of actual weight and volumetric weight. Use the smallest carton that protects your goods, avoid shipping empty space and ask your supplier to pack tightly.
  4. Consolidate. Sending several small shipments separately costs more than combining them. A forwarder can group your cargo with others to get a better rate per kilogram.
  5. Move what is not urgent by sea. Air freight makes sense for urgent, light or high-value goods. Bulky stock that can wait a few weeks is usually much cheaper by sea.
  6. Get your documents right first time. An incorrect invoice, missing permit or wrong HS code can leave cargo sitting at the airport and running up storage charges that wipe out any savings on the freight.
  7. Plan around your own deadlines. Work back from the date the goods must be on the shelf or with your customer, and allow time for customs clearance and delivery at the destination, not just the flight.

Will prices come down?

Nobody can promise that. Prices will depend on fuel, on whether the Gulf hubs return to normal and on how strong peak season demand turns out to be. WorldACD noted that average rates in the third quarter fell 7% from the high levels of the second quarter, but they were still 24% above a year earlier. The fast growth in African freighter capacity could help shippers on some routes over time, but for the next few months it is safest to budget for air freight prices that stay well above 2025 levels.

Talk to Septmax before you book

Septmax Logistics handles air freight, sea freight, customs clearance and door-to-door delivery into Nigeria, including from China. We can compare air and sea options for your shipment, consolidate small consignments and give you a clear quote that shows every charge. Call us on +234-707-476-0270 or email logistics@septmax.com, or visit us at 31 Murtala Muhammed International Airport Road, by 7 & 8 Bus-stop, Ajao Estate, Isolo, Lagos.

This article is general information based on market data and industry reports published in September and October 2026. Rates and surcharges change frequently, so always confirm current prices with your forwarder before you ship.